Case study
Abstract
This research is going to talk about the prediction of volcanic eruption, including comparing two scientific advance and their contributions to human progress, the methods used in each topic, detailed comparisons and contrasts of all aspects of the two scientific advances, the discussion part which shows the differences between the contributions of the two scientific advances, the effectiveness of the research, and finally the judgment of which scientific advance makes the greatest contribution to human progress.
1.0 Introduction
The purpose of the research is to compare the two scientific advances and see which one made the most significant contribution to human progress. The scientific advance in topic 1 is that seismic quiet periods occur before eruptions, and there is a close relationship between the duration of silence and the level of energy. And the scientific advance for topic 2 is ground deformation before an eruption, which can be used to predict the location of the next eruption. Additionally, the rise of magma normally generates detectable earthquakes. It can also deform the ground surface and cause anomalous heat flow, which helps scientists to predict the eruption. (USGS) I believe that the advance in topic 2 will make the greatest contribution to scientific knowledge.
2.0 Methodology
In topic 1, the team monitored the mountain with various instruments, and the researchers did a “hindsight” analysis of the energy released. And in topic 2, satellite data and images are used to help the research. Besides, scientists use seismographic detection of earthquakes, changes in volcanic gas emissions, and changes in gravity and magnetic fields to monitor volcanoes. (Venke, E,2022). The plan for achieving scientific comparison between the two advantages includes accuracy, preciseness, and how it contributes to human progress.
3.0 Findings
Both scientific advances have the same target, which is to prevent damage and loss of life. Both belong to earth science and volcanology, and both mention intensity in the researches, which is the depth of magma storage. However, there are far more differences than similarities. Various instruments and hindsight analysis are methods used in topic 1, but the research in topic 2 is merely based on satellite images. The researches in topic 1 was discovered in 2011, by Diana Roman, which is a volcanologist, and a team of scientists from Penn State, Oxford University, the university of Iceland, and INETER. Contrarily, the research in topic 2 is surveyed from 2006 to 2009, by scientists at the University of Miami, Estelle Chaussard and Professor Falk Amelung. Last but not least, the research in topic 1 is used to predict the intensity of an eruption, while the one in topic 2 is used to predict where the next eruption may occur.
4.0 Discussion
According to a 2018 USGS assessment, 57 volcanoes are a high threat to public safety. (USGS) As populations increase, areas near volcanoes are being developed and aviation routes are increasing. (USGS) As a result, more people and property are at risk from volcanic activity. Obviously, predicting the eruption of the volcano is important since it has an essential effect on public safety, and the ultimate aim is to prevent damage and loss of life. However, it is still difficult since although many pieces of evidence can mean that a volcano is about to erupt, the time and magnitude of the eruption are challenging to pin down. (Adam Dastrup,2016) The research in topic 1 found out that periods of seismic quiet occur before eruptions, and longer quiet periods lead to greater energy. The result can be used for short-term forecasts of eruptions. Since the quiet period ranged from six minutes to over ten hours, people who live near the volcano which is going to erupt can quickly escape from the area they are used to be, and get to safer places, therefore saving their lives. And the study in topic 2 found out that predicting volcanic eruptions can be achieved by detecting deformation prior, and there are regional trends in depths of magma storage. The result enables people and the government to know where the next eruption is likely to occur in the future, thus, there is enough time for them to do preventive work, and deploy resources promptly. It can help society to minimize losses. The researchers only detected the eruptions of specific volcanoes in limited areas, and the factors that may influence the finding are like time, location, weather, and so on. Therefore, the result of the research may not be accurate enough and may be not so effective.
5.0 Conclusions and Recommendations
The scientific advance in topic 2, which is predicting volcanic eruptions by detecting ground deformation makes the most significant contribution to human progress. Because it not only saves people’s lives but also has a great contribution society since there is enough time to deploy resources. However, the scientific advance in topic 2 contributes less since the time is relatively more strictly limited.
Reference List
Adam Dastrup.(2016), “4.06: Predicting Eruptions and Risk” [online]. Available from: https://geo.libretexts.org/Bookshelves/Geography_(Physical)/Physical_Geography_and_Natural_Disasters/
Science daily. (2016), “Volcanoes get quiet before they erupt” [online]. Available from: http://tingyurl.com/GAC013CaseStudy1A
Science daily. (2016), “Taking the ‘pulse’ of volcanoes using satellite images” [online]. Available from: http://tingyurl.com/GAC013CaseStudy1B
USGS. (unknown), “How can we tell when a volcano will erupt?” [online]. Available from: https://www.usgs.gov/faqs/how-can-we-tell-when-a-volcano-will-erupt#:~:
USGS. (unknown), “Why is it important to monitor volcanoes?” [online]. Available from: https://www.usgs.gov/faqs/why-it-important-monitor-volcanoes
Venke, E. (2022), “How do scientists forecast eruptions” [online]. Available from: https://volcano.si.edu/faq/index.cfm?question=